Former Nigerian ambassadors have warned that escalating hostilities between Iran and Israel, with the backing of the United States, could trigger a surge in global oil prices and complicate peace and security efforts worldwide.
The former envoys, who spoke on the matter , described the situation as a “complex show of power” with far-reaching economic and diplomatic implications for Nigeria and the international community.
A former Nigerian ambassador to Algeria, Mohammed Mabdul, said the long-running tension in the Middle East had reached a delicate stage, fuelled by strategic rivalries and unresolved political grievances.
According to him, Western powers, particularly the United States, have consistently supported Israel, while many Arab nations sympathetic to the Palestinian cause lack the political will to confront Israel directly.
He argued that Iran sees itself as a defender of Palestinian rights and possesses sufficient military capacity to confront Israel, though he described that capacity as “limited.”
“The interest of the United States is to make sure that the Iranians don’t have nuclear power which they can use to eliminate Israel. So, they will do anything to protect the interests of Israel,” Mabdul stated.
Beyond the battlefield, Mabdul stressed the enormous economic risks, particularly concerning global oil supplies.
“About two-thirds of oil in the world pass through the Strait of Hormuz. If they decide to block that passage, there is no alternative route that will be of economic interest. If the oil cannot pass through the Strait of Hormuz, then it means the prices of oil will go up,” Mabdul said.
He added that any disruption in the waterway or attacks on oil vessels would significantly affect global trading activities and energy markets.
Similarly, former Ambassador Godknows Igali described the escalation as deeply troubling and warned that further military build-up in the region could snowball into a wider conflagration.
He called for urgent multilateral diplomacy, suggesting that the United Nations Security Council should convene immediately, though he expressed doubt about its effectiveness given America’s veto power.
Igali also raised concerns over the deployment of additional American troops and warships to the Gulf region.
“Aircraft carriers are all over. Which means that if Iran continues with any of the attacks, America will strike again, Israel will strike, and this will snowball into a wider conflagration,” he warned.
On the implications for Nigeria, Igali noted that many Nigerians work across all three countries involved in the dispute as doctors, engineers, nurses, and many more careers including in the oil and gas sector, raising the prospect of a consular emergency should hostilities intensify.
He added that Iran, Nigeria and US are oil-producing countries, stressing there is likely to be an increment in oil prices due to the position Iran holds.
Economically, he acknowledged that rising oil prices could boost Nigeria’s revenues as an oil-producing country.
“To increase oil prices means that we will make more money and the oil prices have already gone up with the situation of America and Iran,” Igali said.
However, he cautioned that the broader global energy disruption and instability could offset any short-term gains.
Also, a former Nigerian Ambassador to the Philippines, Yemi Faronbi, warned that while the war might trigger a massive financial windfall for Nigeria, the unpredictability of the fallout is a grave concern.
He said Iran was likely to target American bases across the Middle East in countries like the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, enlarging the theatre of war and creating global instability.
Faronbi suggested that Nigeria’s diplomatic leaning toward the US could put the country in the crosshairs.
“Given the kind of relationship we are building with America, we find that Iran will, in fact, attack Nigeria as a likely ally of America,” Faronbi warned.
He emphasised that for developing nations like Nigeria to grow, they need a “predictable economic environment and a stable world market,” not the volatile “accidental” wealth brought by global conflict.
Faronbi noted that Iran’s membership in BRICS and its close ties with China creates a complex web of “global economic instability.”
“If Nigeria is perceived as drifting too far into the American orbit during this war, it risks alienating other major economic partners, potentially leading to diplomatic sabotage that affects trade and infrastructure loans,” he said.
A security expert and Executive Director, Foundation for Peace Professionals, Abdulrazaq Hamzat, urged the Federal Government to abandon the country’s long-standing non-aligned foreign policy.
He argued that recent global developments underscored the urgency of adopting a more interest-driven diplomatic posture.
Nigeria adopted a non-aligned stance in the 1960s following independence, aligning with a bloc of countries that sought to avoid formal allegiance to either the Western or Eastern blocs during the Cold War.
The policy was aimed at safeguarding sovereignty, promoting African solidarity, and preserving diplomatic flexibility.
In a statement issued on Saturday, Hamzat said, “The world has moved beyond Cold War-era neutrality. Non-alignment once protected Nigeria’s independence; today, it is mistaken for indecision.
“The US attack on Iran shows that global alignments are being redrawn in real time. Nigeria cannot afford to drift.
“We must stop drifting and start negotiating, our foreign policy must deliver security, jobs, technology transfer, and strategic leverage not just photo opportunities and empty communiqués.”
He contended that Nigeria’s continued reliance on symbolic neutrality weakens its bargaining power in security cooperation, trade negotiations, and energy partnerships.
Hamzat warned that failure to adapt to rapidly evolving global dynamics could diminish Nigeria’s relevance on the international stage.