By the time Governor Siminalayi “Sim” Fubara stood at the Government House in Port Harcourt on 9 December 2025 to announce what many political observers had long anticipated, one chapter of Rivers State politics closed and another—uncertain but rich with possibility—began. His defection from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC) is far more than a change of political jersey; it is a move deeply rooted in the doctrine of necessity—a principle that justifies extraordinary actions in the face of existential threats to governance and stability.
It marks the peak of a tumultuous journey: two bruising years of internal conflict, federal intervention, and institutional paralysis. Until this moment, Fubara remained the lone South-South governor who had refused to defect from his original platform—an act of resilience that stood out against the region’s shifting political loyalties.
A Turbulent Rise
Fubara’s journey began with his election in March 2023 as the PDP candidate for Rivers State, buoyed by the backing of his predecessor and mentor, Nyesom Wike. A seasoned accountant and civil servant, his expertise in public finance positioned him as a steady administrator for one of Nigeria’s wealthiest states.
His May 2023 inauguration came with promises of continuity, youth empowerment, and economic diversification. But the honeymoon quickly dissolved. By October 2023, fissures between Fubara and Wike widened into a full-blown crisis, climaxing in an attempted impeachment by pro-Wike lawmakers. A fire at the House of Assembly complex and a flurry of court judgments plunged the state into institutional uncertainty.
The crisis deepened further in March 2025, when escalating tensions forced the federal government to declare a state of emergency. Fubara was suspended; the assembly dissolved. Public protests, legal battles, and accusations of overbearing godfatherism painted a portrait of a state in turmoil.
Reinstated in September 2025 after President Bola Tinubu lifted the emergency rule, Fubara returned to office with renewed purpose, focusing on project commissions, and recalibrating relationships across the state.
The Imperative of Decamping
Viewed through the lens of necessity, Fubara’s defection becomes a strategic realignment rather than a capitulation. Rivers State—oil-rich, politically strategic, and historically intense in its internal power dynamics—cannot afford prolonged isolation at the federal level. As PDP influence waned across the South-South, Fubara risked leading a state increasingly disconnected from the political centre.
His declaration that full identification with President Tinubu is essential for effective governance underscores a shift from backstage alliances to open partnership. In the doctrine of necessity, pragmatism eclipses partisanship; governance, not party loyalty, becomes paramount.
The Tinubu–Fubara Dialogue
The pivotal moment in this political recalibration likely occurred during Fubara’s closed-door meeting with President Tinubu on December 8, 2025. Although details remain undisclosed, the timing suggests discussions around stabilizing Rivers State, navigating reconciliation with Wike, and charting a roadmap for sustainable peace.
Tinubu—long regarded as a master consensus builder—has the stature to broker détente between the two Rivers strongmen. Wike’s undeniable achievements in infrastructure and political mobilization, combined with Fubara’s quiet resilience and people-focused governance, present a powerful pairing if unity is restored.
Building a Unified Future
Among the many speculations, one stands out: that Fubara may have received assurances for an unhindered second-term bid in 2027. Such stability could allow him to consolidate reforms without perennial impeachment threats.
Simultaneously, Wike is said to be softening his stance, leaning toward supporting a full eight-year tenure for Fubara—an acknowledgment of Rivers’ delicate ethnic balance and a nod to the longstanding aspiration of the “water-side people” (Ijaws) to retain the governorship consecutively.
A renewed Wike–Fubara alliance could unlock unprecedented federal-state collaborations: enhanced Niger Delta development initiatives, environmental remediation programs, and sweeping youth employment schemes. Recent reconciliatory gestures—Fubara’s visits to Wike and expressions of appreciation from Ijaw leaders—suggest that Rivers may be inching toward healing.
A Call to Responsibility
Wike and Fubara now stand at a historic intersection. Both men have demonstrated capacity and courage; both have loyal constituencies. But the future demands restraint, maturity, and a shared commitment to Rivers State. Their supporters must also rise to this duty—rejecting inflammatory rhetoric for actionable cooperation.
Equally important is the Rivers State House of Assembly. The emergency rule and subsequent months of dysfunction left deep wounds. Reconciliation with the executive arm is not capitulation but statesmanship. Lawmakers must recommit to constructive oversight, stability, and procedural integrity.
Speaker Martin Amaewhule’s recent condemnation of dilapidated public schools underscores a shared priority that should unite—not divide—the government. Let education, infrastructure, and economic well-being become bridges to peace.
Key Questions for Reflection
1. Governance: How can Rivers State build sustainable institutions that remain resilient regardless of political alignments or personality clashes?
2. Peace and Development: To what extent can long-term development truly take root in Rivers State without a deliberate commitment to peace, reconciliation, and inclusive leadership?
Conclusion
Politics in the Niger Delta has always been intensely local yet nationally consequential. Fubara’s crossing to the APC closes a turbulent era but opens a narrow window for a different kind of future. If the actors who once fought bitterly can now transform political alignment into purposeful governance, Rivers State will be the greatest beneficiary. If not, the cycle of conflict will merely reset.
Thus, the doctrine that should guide this moment is necessity in its most constructive form: the necessity to govern responsibly, to secure stability, to heal old wounds, and to deliver development. Fubara and Wike—supported by the presidency and a responsible legislature—hold the power to shape a turning point for the state. History will judge their choices.
Article by Professor Steve Azaiki
Chairman, Statekraft Consultants & Partners