Chief
Rasheed Gbadamosi is a former chairman, Petroleum Products Prices Regulatory
Agency. He was also a Minister of National Planning. He discusses some economic
issues with (The Punch)
Were you surprised when it was officially declared by
the Federal Government that Nigeria is in recession?
No,
I was not surprised. It had to happen but it was a question of when it would
happen. It was meant to have come a long time ago.
Why were you not surprised?
I
was not surprised because before Buhari’s regime, we had anticipated that the
recession would come. It was something that was anticipated but what did we do?
There was a feeling that somehow it would not happen and we would be able to
weather the storm but that was not the case. Poor mother Africa was hopeful
that the cross would pass over us but it did not seem to be so. There was a
feeling that Olusegun Obasanjo could have averted such a situation if it
happened during his time.
In what way do you feel Obasanjo could have averted the
recession we are currently facing?
Baba
Obasanjo in a way had this magical capability but it is a shame he could not
bring things about. When we talk about the awful turning point in the economy,
I don’t think Buhari can do anything about it, to be frank.
But what do you think brought about the recession
Nigeria is currently facing?
I
really cannot say what caused it but what I know is that it was meant to have
hit Nigeria a long time ago. I need to think a lot about it.
The government has said that the pains of the current
recession would not have been severely felt if Nigeria had been saving. Do you
agree with them?
It
is not just a question of Nigeria saving, we were not totally prepared. I think
we threw caution to the wind. Look at what happened to some other nations of
the world, they had been through this but they weathered the storm. I think
Nigerians thought the world owed us a meal, they believed the world owed us a
living.
Some people have opined that the government should
spend more on capital development in order to get us out of this recession;
others have argued that government should borrow money. What do you think
government should do?
What
do we need to do? I am frightened, but I believe we do not need to shrink the
economy yet again. I really don’t know what the government can do and that has
frightened me greatly in the past 24 hours but we don’t need to shrink the
economy. I wonder why we believe we need to shrink the economy. I think we
should review what has happened in the last four years and open up the economy.
We should let the great, the good, and the gullible people of our various
spokespersons in the president’s cabinet to start talking in terms of what is
happening. I think we should talk a lot now.
Are you saying that Buhari’s cabinet members are not
vocal enough about the current economic reality in Nigeria?
They
are frightened. They are so frightened by the current situation and they fear
for their lives. I think they believe that we may not be able to weather the
storm. If we experience another period of drought in this country, we would be
in trouble.
When you say trouble, what should Nigerians be
expecting that is worse than this?
If
we are not able to bring in investors, then we would face the drought. I have
noticed that there have been drought in some parts of the country and we don’t
want it to be a generalised thing. Let’s hope that there would be no shortage
in the land.
Despite the reported effort put in place by the current
government, Nigeria still solely depends on importation of fuel. Do you think
Nigeria would ever work on its refineries and stop fuel importation?
I
am afraid not. I have worked in that sphere and I can tell you that we totally
depend on fuel importation.
What can be done to stop that dependency?
I
think for a start, we might have to look elsewhere. I have been thinking of the
coastal region of Lagos that the Folawiyos might want to do something about. We
should look at the coastal ways and see if that might work if we open it up.
Also, I have read about the northern coast line but it is very expensive. It is
too expensive to explore oil there at the moment. Let us see if they are able
to do something about that. They should also look at the promise of gas. We
thought we could do something with gas but we did not. What happened to us? It
is very sorrowful that we have not been able to utilise the gas. Why did the Niger-Delta
boys blow up all what we can get from gas? What were they trying to do? How can
you have a nation and not see the promise of the state?
A lot of Nigerians have been clamouring that the
government should privatise the refineries. Do you support such calls?
I
have always believed in the privatisation of the refineries but my take on that
is to say what we believed in and it is that the whole world is going to get
saturated sooner or later. There would soon be saturation of hydrocarbon
because the whole world would be filled up and I really don’t think there would
be redemption.
But do you think the refineries should be privatised?
I
have always believed in the privatisation of the refineries. You must just get
the proper pricing, get the appropriate amount and if you do that, everything
would be alright.
A lot of Nigerians had believed that the fuel subsidy
has been removed only for the NNPC to announce that there is still subsidy on
the fuel we buy. What do you think is the way forward?
To
be frank, I don’t believe there is any subsidy. In all the years that I have
worked in that sector, I have never believed in subsidy. If you do not put the
appropriate price on a product, you would not get its right price.
It was reported that bodies like MAN, NECA and others
came out to say that Buhari’s economic policy is not working. Do you think it
is working?
It
cannot be ideological. Perhaps in six months down the line, something else can
happen, you can never be sure. Wait until the American economy would crash and
then Trump would just go crazy. Let’s see what would happen but you would never
know.
Do you think Buhari’s administration has a sound
economic team?
I
am sorry but no, he doesn’t. I am afraid that the man has taken on too much and
he needs to rest for a while and then we would see how it goes.
Some people have argued that he has not included major
stakeholders like Dangote in his economic team…
Look
at what happened, there is a patent exhaustion in the last few days. Suddenly
there is a fatigue. Talk to me in two months and let us see.
Do you think that in two months things would get better
or worse?
I
hope it gets better. There is palpable exhaustion in the air because we are
tired, I am very tired. A lot of my investment is in real estate and honestly
things are not moving. I just cannot make a sense of it, things are very bad.
That is where we are now. I am sorry for the next generation and I hope they
would be able to make sense of whatever Nigeria becomes.
Are you saying things are still good for this
generation and it can only get worse for the next generation?
I
am afraid so. Look at what is being reported in the newspapers.
What do you think can be done to rectify the situation?
We
would continue to suffer and smile, things are awful.
So you don’t think there is a quick fix that the
government can embark on?
Quick
fix? Where? It is not going to happen. I am sorry but it is the way things are.
Are you saying that there is no light at the end of the
tunnel?
There
would be light at the end of the tunnel in the end. We would wobble through and
it is not going to be an easy ride.
So Nigeria has never had it this bad before?
No
we have not. If you had spoken to me about five months ago, I might have been
more optimistic. But Buhari has nothing to offer Nigeria when it comes to
economic policies. He has no clue when it comes to economic matters. He has no
clue. Nigerians should just leave him and let him play the agriculture card.
Do you agree with people that say agriculture might be a
way out of this economic mess?
Yes,
it can and it better be a way out, otherwise we are all
doomed.
What do you think the government can do to make
agriculture enticing to the people again?
We
would beg and pray because the agriculture sector has a lot of promise and it
might do something to the economy. However, we can only be hopeful. Agriculture
was something we believed in at a time.
Some months back, the Minister of Finance said that the
recession experienced by Nigerians would soon be a thing of the past. Do you
agree with her?
I
think she is a sweet young lady but I don’t agree with her. Nigerians should
just leave her and see how things happen from now till next year. However I
feel sorry for her because she is not going to get there. The workload is too
heavy for her to bear. It is too much for her. I pity her a lot. When it does
not work, it is never easy. She is an adorable lady but she is not going to get
there.
Do you think Nigeria can ever have a stable power
supply?
Yes
I believe so. We have the promise of gas and it can bring that back. What we
can do is to beg the world to look at us and help us open up the promise of
gas.
The ruling regime has also argued that recession
crept in because of Nigerians’ preference for foreign goods, do you agree?
When
I was much younger, we used to manufacture things. I was making Ragolis water
but that is no longer the case. We would pray that small scale businesses would
begin to thrive again in this country.
Source:The Punch
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