There is a palpable tension across the 30 local government areas of Osun
State as the people of the state go to the poll today to decide who leads them
beyond 2014.
The state is holding another governorship election after over seven
years it held a controversial one in 2007. The legal tussle which trailed the
one conducted by the Prof. Maurice Iwu-led Independent National Electoral
Commission lasted almost four years before the case was finally determined by
the Appeal Tribunal on November 26, 2010.
Today’s election is expected to be peaceful and devoid of violence and
snatching of electoral materials as the state witnessed on April 14, 2007. This
is expected to be so because of heavy presence of security operatives who are
on the ground to ensure a violent-free poll.
Although 20 candidates are contesting today’s election, three among them
are the most popular. The most popular candidates are Governor Rauf Aregbesola
of the All Progressives Congress, Senator Iyiola Omisore of the Peoples
Democratic Party and the Labour Party’s candidate, Alhaji Fatai Akinbade. It is
unlikely that somebody outside the trio would win the poll.
Tension has been heightened following the violent attack which led to
the death of a man in Ilesa. The violence broke out when Omisore took his
campaign to the hometown of the incumbent governor.
Some PDP supporters were said to have embarked on pasting campaign
posters on the eve of his campaign in the town but they were attacked and
injured by some persons believed to be sympathetic to the ruling party. But the
victims were said to have reinforced and stormed the area during the PDP
campaign in the town. One person laid dead after the dust raised by the crisis
had settled.
This election presents another opportunity to INEC to consolidate on the
applause it received following the successful conduct of the June 21
governorship poll in neighbouring Ekiti State.
The APC and the PDP candidates are from Osun East Senatorial District
which is also known as Ife/Ijesa District. While Aregbesola is from Ijesa axis
which has five local government councils, Omisore is from Ife with four local
government areas.
The Local Government councils in Ife are: Ife Central, Ife East, Ife
North and Ife South. The local government areas in Ijesaland are: Atakunmosa
East, Atakunmosa West, Oriade, Obokun, Ilesa East and Ilesa West.
While Aregbesola picked his running mate, Mrs. Titi Laoye-Tomori, who is
the incumbent deputy governor from Osogbo which is the local government with
the highest number of registered voters, Omisore’s running mate, Mr. Adejare
Bello, is from Ede which is one of the towns with the highest number of voters.
The LP candidate, who is a former Secretary to the State Government, is
from Ogbaagba. A town very close to Iwo and he is very popular especially among
the youth.
His generosity, when he held political offices is a plus as many of his
beneficiaries are willing to give maximum support to their benefactor although
this alone cannot guarantee him success in the poll which some analysts predict
would be a contest between the incumbent governor and Omisore, who is a former
deputy governor in the state.
Omisore is believed to be the candidate of the Ife people and majority
of the people in the four local government councils in the ancient town are
expected to give him maximum support.
Our correspondent gathered that chiefs in the town are routing for the PDP
because the candidate of the party is a son of a reigning monarch in Ife
territory.
Ife leaders are said to be taking this position because no indigene of
the town believed to be the cradle of the Yoruba people had ruled the state
since it was created out of the old Oyo State in 1991.
One of the monarchs told journalists in confidence that Ife people are
now ready to support Omisore, who is an indigene of the town and are calling
for the support of people in other towns to rally round the PDP candidate to
emerge victorious in the poll.
The majority of the registered voters in Ife Central LG and Ife East LG
which has 95,471 voters and 8, 430 registered voters respectively will no doubt
vote for their kinsman.
Some other factors which may work in Omisore’s favour is that no
governor has ever won a second term in the state since the dawn of this
democratic dispensation in 1999.
Also, some monarchs said not to be pleased with Aregbsola’s leadership
style are seeing today’s election as an opportunity to effect a change in the
leadership of the state and Omisore is likely going to be a beneficiary of
this.
Some people are of the opinion that Omisore’s Youth Support Forum with
about 300,000 population has put the PDP candidate at an advantage over his
co-contestants but the number of his supporters has not been independently
verified.
Omisore, whose victory is believed to be a great advantage to President
Goodluck Jonathan’s re-election, has the “federal might” backing him and the
ruling party at the centre has not left anyone in doubt that it is ready to
regain the control of the state, which it lost to Aregbesola on November 27,
2010.
Aregbesola’s performance has been echoed in many quarters by people who
had hailed the transformation that had taken place in the state since the APC
government was sworn in on November 27, 2010.
The incumbent governor, according to permutations, is expected to win in
Osogbo which has the highest number of registered voters in the state with 110,
670.
The election will present an opportunity for the majority of the
residents to pay back Aregbesola for the transformation he has carried out in
the state capital. The governor will also record success in Olorunda LG which
has 71,580 registered voters.
The governor is also likely to win in Ilesa East and Ilesa West which
have 54,746 voters and 52,286 registered voters respectively.
The influence of former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola in Odo Otin Local
Government Area with 48,720 votes and in other councils in the Osun Central
Senatorial District may be a boost to Aregbesola’s re-election bid.
Similarly, former Governor Isiaka Adeleke will help the APC to get some
votes in Ede his home town, but this will be seriously challenged by Omisore’s
running mate, Mr. Adejare Bello, who is also from Ede. The contest in Ede North
and Ede South with 49,130 registered voters and 35,931registered voters
respectively is expected to be tough between Adeleke and Adejare because some
residents of the town believe that the position of running mate given to Bello
is better than having nobody among the top 10 leaders in the state cabinet.
However, others are of the opinion that the zone should wait for
Aregbesola to complete two terms in order for them to have another shot at the
prime political position in the state.
Although Aregbesola is from Ilesa, the PDP has strong politicians like
Ebenezer Babatope, former Deputy Govenor, Olusola Obada and others from the
area. The election in the area will be keenly contested.
The APC should have an edge in Ila Local Government which has a former
governor and the immediate past Interim Chairman of the party, Chief Bisi
Akande. However, the PDP will also challenge the APC in this LG with the
presence of the PDP Senatorial Chairman at Osun Central, Mr. Bunmi Jenyo, the
Chairman of Federal Road Maintenance Agency, Mr. Jide Adeniji and Ismaila
Kolawole.
In Ejigbo, the APC has the Speaker of the state House of Assembly, Mr.
Najem Salam and Senator Hussein Mudashir representing Osun West at the Senate.
But the PDP also has a former House of Representatives member, Mr. Bade Falade
as one of its rallying point to secure votes from the people in the local
government.
The votes from Iwo Local Government Area will also been keenly contested
because the Secretary to State Government, Mr. Moshood Adeoti, who is an APC
member is from the town. Chief Abiola Ogundokun of the PDP and the Alliance for
Democracy’s candidate, Senator Sunday Fajimin are also from the town.
Expectedly, there have been series of allegations of plan to rig the
election by the APC and the PDP, which is the most visible of the political
parties.
While the PDP accused the ruling party of planning to use members of the
Osun Youth Empowerment Scheme as INEC’s ad hoc staff for the election, the
party also accused Aregbesola of scheming to use ‘State Boys’, which it
described as the armed wing of the APC to rig the election.
The APC, which is not in short supply of the allegations, claimed that
some PDP members were caught at Akoda, Ede, where they were already thumb
printing ballot papers ahead of the Saturday election. The party added that the
military and the police which are in the control of the Federal Government
headed by the PDP surprisingly freed the suspects.
The APC had earlier claimed that the INEC had concluded arrangements to
bribe the returning officer for the election, who is expected to be a vice
chancellor of a federal university, N1bn to announce a wrong candidate as the
winner of the election.
The Resident Electoral Commissioner in the state, Mr. Olusegun Agbaje,
who replaced Ambassador Rufus Akeju who was much vilified by the PDP has
repeatedly assured that the electoral commission is ready to conduct an
election which will be a reference point of free, fair and credible poll in the
history of the country.
However, Nigerians are watching to see how the INEC will perform in this
election which is seen as another integrity test for them. Some are
apprehensive that this election might not be as fair as the Ekiti election.
Those pessimistic about the poll said that INEC recorded an inconclusive
election in Anambra State during the governorship election after it conducted a
successful election during the governorship poll in Ondo State. They said Osun
might be another sore thumb in INEC’s performance after the success in Ekiti
State except the commission resists pressure to compromise its officials who
are saddled with the responsibility of conducting the election.